DATE: September 05, 2007
CONTACT:
Joseph Stewart, (864) 656-3234
jstewa4@clemson.edu
CONTACT:
Bruce Ransom, (864) 656-0214
bruce@strom.clemson.edu
CONTACT:
David Woodard, (864) 656-3551 or (864) 506-9015
judithw@clemson.edu
WRITER:
Teresa C. Hopkins, (864) 656-1222
hopkin1@clemson.edu
EXPERT: Joseph Stewart
EXPERT: Bruce Ransom
EXPERT: David Woodard
Clemson University Palmetto Poll places Thompson, Giuliani in dead heat
Clinton has strong lead over Obama in Democratic race
CLEMSON – The Clemson University Palmetto Poll of likely voters in the South Carolina Republican and Democratic presidential primaries finds Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani in a virtual dead heat in the GOP contest, 19 percent to 18 percent, respectively, and Hillary Clinton significantly ahead of Barack Obama among the Democrats, 26 percent to 16 percent.
The poll also finds only about one-quarter of the voters in each party admit to having a good idea about who they will support in the Republican primary on Jan. 19, 2008, or the Democratic primary scheduled for Jan. 29, 2008. (See the full results of the poll in Word format or HTML format).
“The fact that Fred Thompson, who has just now announced for the race, is virtually tied with Giuliani means that the Republicans are searching for an alternative to the familiar candidates,” said Clemson University Strom Thurmond Professor of Political Science David Woodard. “The number of undecided voters means that the race in South Carolina will be hotly contested, and the outcome decisive in the national races.”
The battle for the Republican primary is perched for a shakeup in the fall, according to Bruce Ransom, Clemson University political scientist.
“The poll finds Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani virtual tied just prior to Thompson's official entry into the Republican primary, giving Thompson an opportunity to enter the race officially and gather support from social conservatives, allowing him to distance himself from Giuliani and the other top-tier candidates,” Ransom said.
The black vote in South Carolina is up for grabs, with Hillary Clinton (28 percent) and Barack Obama (23 percent) battling for that vote, which is expected to approach half of the voters in the Democratic primary, Ransom said. Those voters will be targeted for heavy candidate appeals in the fall, he said.
“Significantly, the poll finds 40 percent of likely African American primary voters are undecided, meaning the battle for black voters in South Carolina is wide open,” Ransom said.
Voters in both parties rank the Iraq war as the most important problem for the country, but there is a difference between the two of them on other issues. Republicans are more concerned about terrorism and immigration, while Democrats are more interested in health care. Respondents from both parties list the economy and faith and values as important matters candidates must address in the upcoming primary.
According to poll results, more than 60 percent of the GOP base approves of the job President Bush has done and more than 50 percent support his policy in Iraq; while more than 70 percent of Democrats disapprove of the job the president is doing and are split among a policy of timetables for withdrawal (28 percent), immediate withdrawal (27 percent) and some other policy (20 percent) as the best solution in Iraq.
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is up for re-election in 2008. The poll finds that slightly more than one-third of the GOP primary voters would vote to re-elect Graham regardless of who runs against him in the 2008 GOP primary.
The Clemson University Palmetto Poll finds an electorate beginning to focus on a large field of candidates and deeply divided on the issue of the Iraq war and the Bush presidency. The initial poll was conducted in October 2006, when only a few candidates had formally entered the race and others were being discussed as possible entrants. This second poll of declared and rumored candidates was conducted between Aug. 20 and Aug. 29.
Four hundred respondents were interviewed in each party for a total of 800 respondents. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent in each party subgroup.
Respondents were chosen for either party sample if they voted in at least one of the past four Republican or Democratic primaries. Primary voters generally are different from general election voters in that they follow the news more closely, are somewhat older and better educated than other voters. More than half of voters in the Republican sample were 55 years or older, and this voting cohort for the GOP primary is mostly made up of white voters. The Democratic sample is 60 percent female, and evenly split racially: 50 percent white and 50 percent black.