DATE: November 28, 2007

CONTACT: Joseph Stewart, (864) 656-3234
jstewa4@clemson.edu

CONTACT: Bruce Ransom, (864) 656-0214
bruce@strom.clemson.edu

WRITER: Teresa C. Hopkins, (864) 656-1222
hopkin1@clemson.edu

EXPERT: Bruce Ransom

EXPERT: Joseph Stewart

EXPERT: David Woodard

Poll finds South Carolinians are undecided on presidential candidates

CLEMSON – The latest edition of the Clemson University Palmetto Poll, released today (Wednesday) finds South Carolinians are mostly undecided about which presidential candidate to support in the January primaries.

The survey of 900 registered voters in the state, 450 in each party, found 28 percent of Republicans are undecided and 49 percent of Democrats are undecided. The survey was conducted Nov. 14-27. (See detailed poll results in Word or PDF format).

Of the respondents who support a candidate, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson lead the Republican field with 17 percent and 15 percent, respectively. The top three Democratic candidates are Hillary Clinton (19 percent), Barack Obama (17 percent) and John Edwards (12 percent). Clinton’s lead has dropped seven percentage points since the release of the last Clemson University Palmetto Poll in September.

David Woodard, a Clemson political science professor, said the poll shows a surprising increase in support for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (13 percent), who comes in just above John McCain (11 percent) and Rudy Giuliani (nine percent).

“Mike Huckabee has made it onto the radar of voters in the state,” Woodard said. “He is finding more support right now that Rudy Giuliani.”

The survey asked respondents if they are likely to stick with their choice of candidates or change their minds between now and January. Sixty-five percent of the Republicans and 51 percent of the Democrats said they were likely to change their minds before the election in January.

“Voters in the state have not started paying really close attention to candidate activity ahead of the primary,” said Joseph Stewart, chairman of the political science department at Clemson. “South Carolina is up for grabs.”

Stewart said most voters in the state are likely to pay more attention to the candidates in January.

“It isn’t 2008 yet and it is hard for the candidates to compete with Santa Claus,” Stewart said, citing the holiday season as a distraction to voters.

In September the poll found only about a fourth of the voters in each party had a good idea about which candidate they will support. The results of that poll showed Thompson and Giuliani were in a dead heat among GOP voters and Clinton and Obama leading among Democrats.

The initial Clemson University Palmetto Poll was conducted in October 2006, when only a few candidates had formally entered the race and others were being discussed as possible entrants. This second poll of declared and rumored candidates was conducted between Aug. 20 and Aug. 29 and released on Sept. 5.  

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.62 percent in each party subgroup.  

Respondents were chosen for either party sample if they voted in at least one of the past four Republican or Democratic primaries. Primary voters generally are different from general election voters in that they follow the news more closely, are somewhat older and better educated than other voters. More than half of voters in the Republican sample were 55 years or older, and this voting cohort for the GOP primary is mostly made up of white voters. The Democratic sample is 60 percent female and evenly split racially.

END 

Editors: The correct reference to the poll is Clemson University Palmetto Poll.

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